Winter Forecast 2026–27: NOAA's Outlook, Read State by State

NOAA's outlook issued October 15, 2026, driven by El Niño (strong to very strong), favors a milder-than-normal winter across almost the whole country — 39 of 50 states — and a wetter-than-normal one across the southern tier, the East Coast, and California; the Pacific Northwest and much of the Ohio Valley carry equal chances on precipitation. That combination usually means below-normal snow for the northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast lowlands, more mixed and ice events in the mid-South, and heavy mountain snow in the southern Rockies and Sierra. It is a tilt, not a promise — a single cold storm can still make a big winter anywhere, and the per-state tilts on this page are taken from CPC's official Dec–Feb probability map at each state's three reference cities, since CPC publishes probabilities by region rather than a call per state.

On CPC's official Dec–Feb map issued October 15, 2026, 39 states fall under a milder-than-normal tilt, 0 colder, 11 equal chances; 28 tilt wetter, 2 drier, 20 equal chances. Those counts come from reading CPC's map at each state's three reference cities — CPC draws probability bands by region rather than issuing one call per state, so a state whose cities straddle two bands is counted as equal chances here. El Niño conditions are present and still strengthening. In its October 8, 2026 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, CPC put the chance of a strong to very strong El Niño lasting through January–March 2027 above 83%, and gave an 83% chance that the October–December season sets a record (+2.5°C or more, 3-month RONI) for any El Niño since 1950 (70% for November–January). CPC is explicit that impacts consistent with El Niño become more likely with an event this large, but are not guaranteed. Next CPC update: November 19, 2026.

NOAA, and it isn't close. The Farmers' Almanac and Old Farmer's Almanac use undisclosed formulas (sunspots, tides, planetary positions) and claim 80%+ accuracy, but independent checks by meteorologists and universities find their regional winter calls land near coin-flip rates. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center publishes probabilities, verifies them publicly, and updates monthly. Its winter temperature outlooks show real but modest skill — especially in strong El Niño or La Niña years — and its precipitation outlooks less.

A southward-shifted, stronger Pacific jet: wetter than normal from California across the southern tier to the Southeast, milder than normal across the northern tier from the Pacific Northwest to New England, and drier across the northern Rockies, northern Plains, and Ohio Valley. Snow usually runs below normal in the northern lowlands and above normal in the southern mountains. Strong events (like the one CPC expects for 2026–27) make these tendencies more likely, but never certain.

It sweeps south and downhill for three months: the Colorado and Wyoming high country and interior Alaska in early-to-mid October, the northern Plains and upper Midwest in mid-November, the Northeast interior and Great Lakes in late November, the I-95 corridor and Ohio Valley in mid-December, and the mid-South and Carolina Piedmont in January — if at all. The 50-state table on this page lists each state's median first measurable snow.

By city normals, Vermont (Burlington, 81 in), Alaska (Anchorage, 78 in), Maine (Portland, 62 in), New Hampshire, and Wyoming lead — but the real snow capitals are sub-state belts: Syracuse, NY (~128 in, snowiest big city), Marquette, MI (~150 in), Valdez, AK (~300 in, snowiest town), and mountain stations like Mount Baker, WA (world record 1,140 in in 1998–99) and Alta, UT (500+ in).

The US freezing-rain belt runs from north Texas and Oklahoma through Arkansas, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, and up the Carolina and Virginia Piedmont into the mid-Atlantic — places where shallow arctic air gets overrun by Gulf moisture. Interior New England and the Ohio Valley form a secondary belt. The states on this page rated 4–5 of 5 are where a damaging ice storm is an every-few-years event.

Modestly, for temperature; weakly, for precipitation; not at all, for snowfall totals. Skill comes almost entirely from ENSO and long-term warming trends, which is why CPC's confidence rises in strong El Niño/La Niña winters. Day-to-day weather is unpredictable beyond about two weeks, so treat any seasonal "forecast" that names specific storm dates or snow totals as entertainment.