Vermont Winter Forecast 2026–27: Snow, Cold & First Snow

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center outlook (issued October 15, 2026) puts Vermont at milder than normal for temperature and equal chances (no lean) for precipitation over December–February, with El Niño driving the pattern, read off CPC's official map at the state's three reference cities. CPC draws its probability bands by region rather than issuing a call for each state, so where a state's cities straddle two bands we show equal chances — the official maps are at cpc.ncep.noaa.gov. A milder tilt with no precipitation lean usually means snowfall slightly below normal — fewer days cold enough for snow, not necessarily fewer storms. Seasonal outlooks never forecast snowfall totals, and Burlington's 1991–2020 normal of 81 in remains the best single planning number.

The median first measurable snow (0.1 in or more) in Burlington is November 7; about one year in ten it arrives by October 25, and one in ten waits until November 22 or later. Vermont's snow belt (Northern Green Mountains) usually records its first snow weeks earlier.

January is the coldest month in Burlington, with a normal January high of 28°F and low of 12°F. The all-time state record low is -50°F at Bloomfield in 1933.

Burlington averages 81 in of snow per season (NOAA 1991–2020 normals), with January the snowiest month. Statewide totals vary enormously: Burlington ~81 in, Montpelier ~85 in, Brattleboro ~60 in. The heaviest totals fall in Vermont's snow belt (Northern Green Mountains): Jay Peak averages ~350 in.

The Farmers' Almanac and Old Farmer's Almanac publish winter forecasts from undisclosed formulas and have never shown skill beyond chance in independent checks. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center publishes probabilities with stated skill and updates monthly. Even NOAA's outlook is only a tilt, so the ranking is: NOAA's tilt first, Vermont's 30-year normals second, and the almanacs for entertainment.

El Niño conditions are present and still strengthening. In its October 8, 2026 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, CPC put the chance of a strong to very strong El Niño lasting through January–March 2027 above 83%, and gave an 83% chance that the October–December season sets a record (+2.5°C or more, 3-month RONI) for any El Niño since 1950 (70% for November–January). CPC is explicit that impacts consistent with El Niño become more likely with an event this large, but are not guaranteed. For Vermont, CPC's map puts that at milder than normal for temperature and equal chances (no lean) for precipitation — taken from CPC's official Dec–Feb probability map at each state's three reference cities, since CPC publishes probabilities by region rather than a call per state. CPC's Dec–Feb map, reissued October 15, favors a milder-than-normal winter across the whole Northeast, with odds of 50% or more across most of the region. The wet tilt runs up the coast: New Jersey, southern New England, New Hampshire and Maine lean wetter than normal, while Pennsylvania, New York and Vermont read as equal chances on precipitation. That is the classic strong-El Niño pattern, an active coastal storm track with marginal cold. CPC adds that El Niño and the westerly QBO tend to keep the polar vortex strong and steady, which slightly lowers the odds of the stratospheric warmings that set off long Arctic outbreaks. For snow lovers: storms are likely, the rain/snow line decides everything, and the interior highlands are a safer snow bet than I-95.

Vermont rates 3 of 5 (moderate) on our freezing-rain scale. Vermont sees freezing rain a few times each winter, usually as a brief glaze at the start or end of a storm rather than a multi-day event — though the interior and valleys can trap cold air and get a real ice storm once a decade.

Anchor it to the first frost: Vermont's typical first frost is September 24, and a hard freeze (28°F) usually follows within about two weeks — around October 8. Blow out sprinklers and disconnect hoses before the hard freeze, service the furnace by then, and have winter tires on before November 7.