Missouri Winter Forecast 2026–27: Snow, Cold & First Snow
Typical first snow December 2 · St. Louis averages 18 in a season — plus NOAA's Dec–Feb outlook for the state and what's on the ground right now.
First snow typically December 2 · 22 days awayThe Missouri snow season at a glance
NOAA 1991–2020 normals · St. LouisMissouri straddles the ice belt: the January 2007 and 2009 storms glazed the Bootheel and Ozarks with 1–3 in of ice, while St. Louis's biggest threat is the rain–sleet–snow swing of a single storm.
What NOAA's 2026–27 winter outlook means for Missouri
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issues a probability tilt — above, below, or equal chances — for temperature and precipitation, three months at a time. It is the only government seasonal forecast that exists, and it does not, and cannot, forecast snowfall totals or specific storms.
Where this tilt comes from: Each state's tilt here is read straight off CPC's official Dec–Feb probability map, at the three reference cities listed on that state's page. CPC forecasts by region, not by state: its probability bands cross state lines, so where a state's three cities land in different bands the tilt shows as equal chances. Check any state against CPC's own map. See CPC's official Dec–Feb outlook map →
What it means for snow: More storms, marginal cold: expect an active winter where the rain/snow line decides everything. Elevation and the interior are the safer snow bets; valley and coastal totals often finish below normal in this combination.
Midwest context. Every Midwest state is favored milder than normal, with odds of 50% or more across Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Dakota, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio; CPC's discussion names the upper Mississippi Valley and the Great Lakes among the places with its highest odds of a warm start to winter. Precipitation is mostly equal chances: Michigan carries a below-normal tilt, while Missouri, Kansas and Nebraska sit in the wet central-Plains extension. Lake-effect belts still get their snow when the lakes are open and the air is cold enough, but seasonal totals in strong El Niño years have historically run below average here, and the shortfall comes from the warmth, not from missing storms. Warm plus wet in the central Plains leans toward more mixed-precipitation events.
Snow on the ground in Missouri right now
| City | Snow depth now | Snowfall next 7 days | Coldest low next 7 days | Normal season |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City | loading… | — | — | 16 in |
| St. Louis | loading… | — | — | 18 in |
| West Plains | loading… | — | — | 9 in |
Loading live conditions…
Snow depth map around Kansas City
Current modeled snow depth across the surrounding terrain, or flip to the 7-day snowfall forecast. Enter a ZIP to recenter anywhere in the country.
Modeled snow depth on the ground around Kansas City, MO. This is a weather-model estimate, not a gauge reading: it misses drifts, shaded hollows, and freshly plowed lots. For official observations see NOAA's NOHRSC snow analysis or a nearby SNOTEL site.
St. Louis winter normals, October–April
| Month | Avg snowfall | Avg high | Avg low |
|---|---|---|---|
| October | 0 in | 69°F | 47°F |
| November | 1 in | 56°F | 37°F |
| December | 4 in | 44°F | 28°F |
| January | 6 in | 41°F | 25°F |
| February | 5 in | 46°F | 28°F |
| March | 2 in | 56°F | 37°F |
| April | 0 in | 67°F | 47°F |
NOAA NCEI 1991–2020 climate normals for St. Louis, rounded. Seasonal total (18 in) includes May–September trace months not shown. January is the snowiest month. State record low: -40°F, Warsaw, 1905.
Missouri's snow belts
Northern Missouri
Kirksville & the Iowa border
Ozark Plateau ice, more than snow
One of Missouri's snowiest zones — expect totals well above the St. Louis normal.
Missouri winter-prep checklist, by date
The first frost is the warning shot. Typical first frost in Missouri: October 22 — see the Missouri first-frost page.
A hard freeze typically follows the first frost by about two weeks. Backflow preventers and above-ground manifolds crack first — this is the single most expensive thing to skip.
Book the HVAC tech before the first cold snap, when every company's schedule fills. Test the CO detector — furnaces and generators are the two winter CO sources.
Median first measurable snow in St. Louis is December 2; one winter in ten it arrives by November 11.
With a normal January low of 25°F, Missouri homes are built for cold — the risk is the unheated garage, crawlspace, or vacation property.
Ice storm risk in Missouri: very high
Missouri sits in the core of the US ice belt. Freezing rain — not snow — is the winter hazard that takes the power out, and a 0.5 in glaze is enough to start snapping lines and limbs. Expect one significant freezing-rain event most winters and a region-wide ice storm every 5–10 years.
Freezing rain needs a specific sandwich: warm, moist air aloft sliding over a shallow layer of below-freezing air at the surface. That is why the ice belt runs from Texas and Oklahoma through the Ozarks, the mid-South, and up the Carolina Piedmont into the mid-Atlantic — places where arctic air arrives thin and Gulf moisture arrives on top. CPC's map tilts Missouri wetter than normal this winter, which raises the number of storms that could set that sandwich up — worth a generator check.
What a seasonal outlook tells you about snow
Day-to-day weather is unpredictable beyond about two weeks. What seasonal forecasters have instead is the background state — mainly ENSO, the El Niño / La Niña cycle in the tropical Pacific — which nudges the jet stream's average position for months at a time. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center turns that nudge into a probability: "40% chance of above-normal temperatures" means 40%, with 33% the climatological baseline. A 33/33/33 split (equal chances) means they see no usable signal at all.
Snowfall is harder still, because it needs cold and moisture to line up storm by storm. A warm, wet tilt can deliver a huge snow winter if the cold arrives on the right three days, or a washout if it doesn't. Independent verification studies consistently find CPC temperature outlooks carry modest skill in winter (most of it from ENSO and long-term warming trends), precipitation outlooks less, and almanac-style snow forecasts none. So: use the tilt to lean your planning, use the 30-year normals on this page as the anchor, and use the 7-day forecast for anything that actually needs a decision.
This year's background state: El Niño conditions are present and still strengthening. In its October 8, 2026 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, CPC put the chance of a strong to very strong El Niño lasting through January–March 2027 above 83%, and gave an 83% chance that the October–December season sets a record (+2.5°C or more, 3-month RONI) for any El Niño since 1950 (70% for November–January). CPC is explicit that impacts consistent with El Niño become more likely with an event this large, but are not guaranteed.
- A stronger, southward-shifted Pacific jet stream: wetter than normal across the southern tier from California to the Southeast, especially in late winter (Jan–Mar).
- Milder than normal across the northern tier — Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast — with below-normal snowfall often following from the warmth, not from a lack of storms.
- Drier than normal across the northern Rockies, northern High Plains, and parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley; mainland Alaska trends drier and milder.
- Nor'easters and Gulf-coast storms are often more frequent in strong El Niño winters; whether they fall as snow or rain in the mid-Atlantic is the big unknown and depends on the cold supply week to week.
- Ice-storm risk climbs in the Southern Plains and Southeast when a wet southern storm track meets shallow cold air — exactly the setup strong El Niño favors.
Missouri winter forecast FAQ
More Missouri seasonal timing
More Midwest winter forecasts
Climatology: NOAA NCEI 1991–2020 U.S. Climate Normals for St. Louis and the cities listed; state record lows from NCEI state climate extremes. Outlook: NOAA Climate Prediction Center seasonal outlook issued October 15, 2026 — a probability tilt, not a snowfall forecast, and the state-level tilt shown here is taken from CPC's official Dec–Feb probability map at each state's three reference cities, since CPC publishes probabilities by region rather than a call per state. Live values: Open-Meteo model data, not gauge observations. Hero image: “Rime ice on Jay Peak” by Runningonbrains, CC BY 3.0. National picture: the 2026–27 winter outlook for every state → · national snow depth map →